Although US President Donald Trump has only spent a few months in his second term following his dramatic return to the White House, his focus is now on a crucial political event: the 2026 midterm elections.

This event, which includes the full renewal of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate seats, traditionally serves as a popular referendum on the president’s and his party’s performance, and an opportunity for the opposition to reshape the balance of power in Congress.

But with Trump, things are far from traditional; the man who built his political presence by breaking norms and pushing the “America First” slogan faces a complex equation today: controversial economic achievements, increasing divisions within the Republican Party, and external pressures ranging from the war in Ukraine to the Gaza crisis and tensions with Iran.

How will all this affect the upcoming elections? Can Trump maintain the Republican majority, or will he face a hostile Congress that restricts his ambitions?

The Solid Base and Its Limits

David Ramadan, former US Congressman, sees Trump’s solid electoral base as his strongest weapon.

This base, loyal to the “America First” slogan and adopting his populist rhetoric, remains a key pillar of his political presence. However, Ramadan points out that despite its strength, this base is not enough to decide the midterm election battle, which mainly depends on independent and swing voters.

He emphasizes that Republicans, despite controlling both the House and Senate, face a real challenge due to the narrow margin separating them from the Democrats.

Any slight shift in the preferences of independent voters could lead to losing control of one chamber, complicating Trump’s task of passing his legislative policies.

The Economy Between Propaganda and Reality

The economy is the main pillar on which Trump builds his electoral discourse. Ihab Abbas, a writer and political researcher, stresses that the administration’s achievements are clear on the ground: a relative decline in basic commodity prices, improvement in stock market indicators, and growth in certain economic sectors.

According to Abbas, these achievements give Trump a strong promotional card he can use to convince voters that his economic policies yield tangible results.

However, the picture is not without challenges. Edmond Gharib, a professor of international relations, believes the positive economic impact has not sufficiently reached the middle and lower classes. Inflation and rising living costs remain a concern for the average American voter.

Gharib adds that Trump’s loss of support from some prominent economic figures, such as Elon Musk, sends a negative signal about declining confidence among major business leaders in his policies, which may affect the president’s image in public opinion.

Republican Division: An Internal Dilemma

Former US Ambassador Massoud Maalouf points out that Trump’s biggest challenge may not come from the Democrats but from within his own Republican Party.

The ideological divisions between the hard-right wing and the traditional wing have become clearer under the president’s policies. Sensitive issues such as Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have deepened the rift within the party. The traditional current sees Trump’s foreign policies as weakening America’s image as a diplomatic power, while the hard-right wing views them as expressions of firmness and strength.

According to Maalouf, this division may reflect in the ballot boxes through decreased enthusiasm among some Republican voters, threatening the party’s ability to retain its seats in swing districts.

Foreign Policy: Between Gains and Criticism

Foreign policy has not been absent from the election scene. Trump boasted about imposing tough sanctions on Iran and strengthening the alliance with Israel, considering this an achievement in protecting American interests. However, his critics argue that over-focusing on the Iranian file and neglecting other issues has caused the United States to lose diplomatic balance.

Edmond Gharib explains that Trump’s insistence on escalating confrontation with Tehran has exposed him to internal and external criticism, especially since the average American citizen does not see a direct connection between this policy and their daily life. The Gaza file sparked a wave of anger after Washington appeared to abandon its traditional role as an impartial mediator, increasing US isolation on the international stage.

Midterms: A Historical Base Against the President

Paul Salem, head of the Middle East Institute in Washington, reminds of a nearly established political fact: midterm elections often yield negative results for the incumbent president. The American voter tends to balance power between the two parties, making the ruling party vulnerable to losses even when achieving relative successes.

Salem points out that ongoing economic pressures, even if somewhat eased, may push voters to support the Democrats to create political balance.

Between Slogans and Numbers: The Battle of Public Mood

The electoral equation appears complex. Trump has strong slogans that ignite his base’s enthusiasm, such as America First and border control, but he faces an economic and social reality full of challenges.

Independents, who often decide elections, view the president’s record critically. If he fails to convince them that his policies serve their direct interests, he may face losses in Congress.

The upcoming midterm elections are not just a routine event but a decisive test determining the future of Trump’s second administration. Between an economy showing mixed indicators, a divided Republican Party, and controversial foreign policies, the president stands at a crossroads.

If he manages to translate his economic achievements into a tangible feeling among the middle and lower classes, he may mitigate expected losses. But if internal divisions and external criticisms prevail, losing one chamber seems almost inevitable.

In any case, the results of this event will serve as a compass shaping the remainder of Trump’s second term and determining the balance of power in preparation for the next presidential battle.