Climate scientists say the likelihood of the UK experiencing a summer with temperatures similar to or higher than summer 2025 has increased by 70 times due to climate change.

Summer 2025 was officially recorded as the hottest summer season in UK history, after the country experienced four consecutive heatwaves, according to preliminary data from the Met Office.

The average temperature in the UK between June 1 and August 31 was 16.10°C, exceeding the long-term average by 1.51 degrees. It also surpassed the previous record for the hottest summer, set in 2018 at 15.76°C.

This summer displaced the famous 1976 summer from the list of the five hottest summers since records began in 1884. It has become clear that the five hottest summers in the UK have all been recorded after the year 2000.

Analysis by climate scientists at the Met Office shows that the chance of recording a summer with record-breaking temperatures matching or exceeding those of summer 2025 is now 70 times higher compared to a world without human-caused emissions.

The highest temperature this summer was recorded at 35.8°C in Faversham, Kent, though it remains below the UK record of 40.3°C set in July 2022. However, the continuation of heatwaves raised the average temperature this summer to record levels.

The country experienced four consecutive heatwaves, with many days exceeding 30°C.

At the end of the month, scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, an international team studying the impact of climate change on extreme weather events, reported that the likelihood of the heatwave in southeast England increased by a hundredfold due to climate change.

This trend continued into July, which ranked as the fifth hottest July on record in the UK, followed by a fourth heatwave in August that pushed the season’s average to a record high.

In this context, Dr. Emily Carlisle, a scientist at the Met Office, said, “The continuous high temperatures this year resulted from a combination of factors, including dominance of high-pressure systems, unusually warm seas around the UK, and dry soil during spring.”

She added, “These conditions created an environment that allowed heat to accumulate quickly and persist, leading to a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperatures above their usual averages.”

This summer also saw a notable decrease in rainfall, with the UK-wide precipitation not exceeding 84% of the long-term average. In England specifically, officials reported a “significant national shortage” in water resources. Farmers suffered major crop losses, and most regions imposed water use restrictions amid declining reservoir and river levels and reduced groundwater reserves.

A study by Met Office climate scientists indicates that the probability of the UK experiencing a summer with record-level heat similar to or more severe than summer 2025 is now about 70 times higher than it would be in a world without human emissions.

Dr. Mark McCarthy, head of climate attribution at the Met Office, explained that a summer of this level was once rare, occurring only once every 340 years in the pre-industrial climate, but is now expected approximately every five years.

McCarthy added that summer 2025, despite being record-breaking, reflects a broader trend where the hottest summers are becoming more likely given the current warming trajectory. He said, “What was once considered an extreme event is now more common in our changing climate.”

These findings align with previous Met Office estimates. In 2019, scientists estimated that a summer similar to 2018 would recur every eight to nine years under current warming levels, but summer 2025 surpassed this expectation by setting a new record within just seven years.

The Met Office notes that climate change is reshaping our concept of what constitutes an “exceptional summer” in the UK, with what was once rare gradually becoming a recurring pattern.