Arabica coffee futures prices rose on the Intercontinental Exchange on Thursday following a warning from the Brazilian National Food Agency (CONAB) about price increases after the US imposed a 50 percent tariff on imports from Brazil.

Arabica futures climbed 0.75 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $3.744 per pound, after reaching a four-month high of $3.9130 last week.

CONAB stated in a report that it will not be easy for the US to find a substitute for Brazilian coffee in a global market already experiencing stock shortages, adding that the upward price trend may continue.

The US is the world’s largest coffee consumer, while Brazil is the top producer and exporter.

Meanwhile, the agency lowered its forecast for the Brazilian coffee crop in 2025, expecting it to reach 55.2 million bags, down from 55.7 million previously. This figure is still 1.8 percent higher than the previous year.

CONAB said Brazilian coffee exports fell 31 percent in August to 2.38 million bags.

Global exports of green, or unroasted, coffee declined 0.7 percent to 10.3 million bags in July compared to last year, which was a record year for green coffee bean shipments, according to the International Coffee Organization’s monthly report.

While Arabica coffee prices rose, Robusta coffee prices fell, dropping 0.9 percent to $4,414 per ton.