The gold ounce held its gains above the historic $4000 level achieved on Wednesday, trading at $4,012.46 in the spot market on Thursday, down 0.63%, after surpassing $4041.7 per ounce the previous day with a 1.5% increase.

US December gold futures fell 0.75% to $4,040 after prices soared more than 1.5% to a record $4063.70 per ounce the day before.

On Thursday morning, silver dropped 1.99% to $48, and palladium fell 1.58% to $1,674 after surging over 8% the previous day.

Palladium traded at $1,472, down 0.75%.

Concerns over geopolitical and global economic risks were the main drivers pushing gold up 54% this year and reaching a record level above $4000 per ounce.

Analysts appeared puzzled about what factors could curb this rise.

Gold has doubled over the past two years as investors sought safety amid risks fueled by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, concerns over the strength of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve’s independence, as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine and slowing European growth.

John Maier, an analyst at S.P. Angel advisory, said, “The gold market seems to be experiencing a ‘once-in-a-generation’ move.”

Gold is on track for its biggest annual gain since the 1979 oil crisis, which also pushed silver, platinum, and palladium higher.

Palladium rose about 8% in spot trades on Wednesday to $1445.19 per ounce.

Central bank gold purchases have supported prices, with Metals Focus reporting purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, and expecting central banks to buy 900 tons this year, double the average annual purchases between 2016 and 2021.

Monetary policymakers also supported gold prices by keeping borrowing costs low and delaying interest rate hikes, driving investors toward the yellow metal as a safe haven.

Each upward move in gold increases the likelihood of sell-offs due to rising overbought signals, but surpassing $4000 could pave the way for continued gains through 2026.

David Wilson, an analyst at BNP Paribas, said, “Usually one or two risk drivers move gold prices in a given year, but currently all traditional gold drivers are present.”

Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce from $4,300.