Ali Saleh Abadi – Editor-in-Chief of “Setareh Sobh” newspaper – Saturday, October 11.

Wars may start as entertainment but end only in tragedy, as can be seen in all wars. On October 7, 2023, Hamas broke through the iron wall and entered Israel.

This event, intended by the “Resistance Axis” as a crushing blow to Israel and America, turned into a “bitter comedy,” with celebrations, candy distribution, and fireworks in the streets of Tehran. However, the end was tragic for the group that sought to destroy Israel and America, especially with the ceasefire agreement imposed under American pressure after two years of war.

The question arises: what benefits did Palestine or Iran gain from this war?

The 77-year-old conflict between Arabs and Israel was essentially a Hebrew-Arab-Western conflict, and Iran’s entry after the withdrawal of Arab countries was a costly mistake. Therefore, it is time for Iran to leave this conflict or peace to its original parties.

The attacks launched by Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis on Israel and its ships in the Red Sea led to three direct confrontations between Iran and Israel, costing both sides significant human and material losses. Had Hamas not started the war, the confrontations between Israel and Iran would not have erupted, and Tehran would not have paid the price for a Hebrew-Arab conflict that does not directly concern it.

Had Hamas and Hezbollah not participated in the attacks, Israel would not have targeted Iranian military leaders and intelligence centers. Also, without those attacks, the Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear facilities would not have been bombed, nor would nuclear scientists, who could have been a strategic asset for future generations, have been assassinated.

International sanctions would not have been reinstated, the dollar would not have exceeded 100,000 tomans, nor would gold have reached more than 100 million tomans.

Nevertheless, the official doctrine in Tehran remains supportive of Hamas and Hezbollah, as reflected in the visit of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council to Lebanon, despite no Arab country being willing to engage in such adventures anymore. On the contrary, Arab and Islamic countries like Turkey and Pakistan strongly support the 20-point peace plan proposed by Donald Trump, and Hamas itself thanked Trump for his efforts.

The reality is that Iran is losing its traditional cards: Hezbollah has lost its old deterrent capability and is under American, Saudi, Turkish, and French pressure to disarm. The same applies to the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, which are pressured to integrate into the Iraqi army.

On the other hand, Pakistan has a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and has informed Tehran that any attack on Riyadh will be considered an attack on Pakistan itself. Importantly, after the bombing of Iran’s Al-Udeid base in Qatar and the Israeli attack on Hamas leadership meeting in Doha, Trump issued an order to protect Qatar from any external attack. Turkey and Azerbaijan are also at odds with Iran’s interests and host an active Israeli presence.

All these factors indicate that the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape is shifting against Iran’s national interests. Iran today stands at a crossroads: either continue the costly old doctrine or change direction toward settlement, accepting the peace plan, the two-state solution, and understanding with the United States.

Despite the heavy losses suffered by Hamas, its resistance yielded tangible results, including the International Criminal Court’s indictment of Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes and the recognition of an independent State of Palestine by 160 countries.