Gold has recently recorded a historic surge, surpassing $3,800 per ounce, its highest real price ever when adjusted for inflation. This rise raises a fundamental question: Has gold truly become expensive, or is its journey just beginning?

Historical Perspective

In 1980, gold peaked at $850 per ounce amid rampant inflation and geopolitical crises. Adjusted to today’s levels, this equates to about $3,670. By breaking this barrier, gold is trading in an unprecedented zone, making it incomparable to traditional benchmarks.

Interestingly, stock markets, despite nominal record highs, appear weaker when measured against gold. For example, the S&P 500 index has dropped about 25% from its 2021 peak when measured in gold rather than dollars. This suggests that the stock rise might be an illusion caused by currency weakness, not real asset strength.

The Role of Gold ETFs

According to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs saw inflows of $47 billion during the first eight months of 2025, led by North America, followed by Europe, where demand rose due to political risks.

Surprisingly, the total value of these funds does not exceed $255 billion in a global financial system exceeding $300 trillion. This means even small capital movements can significantly move gold prices.

Our models indicate that if just 0.5% of global treasury funds shift to gold, its price could jump to $4,500 – $5,000. If the share rises to 1%, levels between $5,700 – $7,700 could be seen.

Extreme Factors: From BRICS to Bitcoin

With the BRICS group seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar, gold is regaining its status as a trade and reserve benchmark. In a radical scenario of a global dollar decline—a purely theoretical scenario—gold could reach $10,000 per ounce.

Conversely, Bitcoin’s entry as “digital gold” adds a new dimension. In major crises, Bitcoin might share part of the flows that traditionally went exclusively to gold, potentially limiting gold’s upward surge or reshaping the safe haven landscape.

Gold is no longer just a classic defensive asset. Its surpassing of the highest real price in history signals deeper shifts in global markets. The question is no longer just: Has gold peaked? But: Is gold reclaiming its role as a cornerstone of the global financial system?