Despite the efforts of the American space agency NASA and its partners, China appears to be confidently advancing towards achieving its goal of reaching the Moon, possibly surpassing the United States in this contemporary space race.

Recently, SpaceX successfully conducted the 10th test of its Starship vehicle, which was successful in all aspects and met the intended objectives.

In this context, writer Eric Berger published an article on the tech-focused site Ars Technica, sparking debate and concern among those involved in space policy. After analyzing several successful Chinese lunar technology experiments, including a test of a crewed vehicle model designed to land on the Moon, and reviewing some setbacks experienced by Starship, Berger concluded: “It is now likely that China will be able to land astronauts on the Moon during this decade, thus advancing ahead of NASA and leading the first phase of this new space race.”

Although this conclusion may seem pessimistic for America, it represents a real warning. In the near future, we might watch on TV the first human walking on the Moon since December 1972, but this time, the speaker will be Chinese.

Starship, designed for the human landing system, is one of the two main pillars of NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to return American astronauts to the Moon. The second pillar involves developing new spacesuits for extravehicular activities.

Technical Challenges

Under this program, NASA plans to execute Artemis 2 in 2026, where astronauts will orbit the Moon. However, Artemis 3, which includes the actual lunar landing, depends entirely on Starship’s ability to transport astronauts from orbit to the lunar surface. Many technical challenges must be overcome before this can happen.

According to another article published on Ars Technica, these challenges include:

• Reusability: Developing a heat shield that can be quickly reused, along with the ability for Starship’s upper stages to land and relaunch.
• Propellant Transfer: Conducting tests to refuel spacecraft in low Earth orbit, which is critical for mission success.
• Space Depots: Designing and testing cryogenic fuel depots capable of reducing fuel loss due to thermal leakage over time.
• Lunar Landing: Successfully landing Starship on the Moon’s surface, a major challenge due to the vehicle’s length and the Moon’s rugged terrain.
• Lunar Takeoff: Demonstrating Starship’s ability to launch again from the Moon using its own fuel without any surface infrastructure.
• Mars Ambitions: Confirming the vehicle’s capability to land on Mars and use liquid fuel under the harsh conditions of the Red Planet.

Timeline

Although the official date for Artemis 3 remains set for 2027, many experts and observers consider this date unrealistic, suggesting 2028 as a more logical time for the next American lunar landing.

SpaceX researcher Gwynne Shotwell assured NASA’s acting director, Steve Jurczyk, that the human landing system would be ready on time. However, this statement does not necessarily reflect the reality seen by experts, as challenges remain and may cause delays.

Two key questions arise: Will China beat the United States in returning to the Moon? And if so, will this lead to long-term strategic or scientific significance?

Despite Berger’s explicit warning, it cannot be definitively said that China will win the second Moon race. The success of the recent Starship test suggests that SpaceX’s path is stabilizing, and the company may soon achieve a series of successes leading up to the anticipated Artemis 3 landing.

An Embarrassing Blow

On the other hand, China may also face technical failures that could delay its project. However, if Beijing succeeds in sending astronauts to the Moon before the United States, it would be an embarrassing blow to the American space program, and public debate in Washington would focus on assigning blame for “losing” this race, with politicians and commercial companies bearing most of the responsibility.

This American delay is not sudden but stems from decades of failed ambitious and integrated space exploration programs, with at least two attempts abandoned before fruition.

Nevertheless, if the United States and its partners effectively leverage their capabilities, they may catch up and even surpass the race.

Ultimately, the true victory in this race may not be about who arrives first but who can establish a stable and permanent presence on the Moon, an achievement that will require international cooperation and a long-term vision beyond the initial landing.