As the countdown to the Lebanese Cabinet session on the 5th of this month begins, set to review the army’s implementation plan to confine weapons to the state before the end of this year, Hezbollah’s arm enters a new phase, intersecting local and regional, and operational and constitutional matters.

This comes amid the Presidency and the military establishment’s affirmation that “there is no turning back” on this issue, contrasted with the “red lines” drawn by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri against any forceful imposition, calling instead for a “calm defensive strategy,” which resembles Hezbollah’s objection to the current form of the plan.

Will the “third time be the charm,” making the Friday session a continuation of the August 5 and 7 sessions that approved the objectives in the paper of the US presidential envoy Tom Barrack? Consequently, will the Cabinet’s decision be effective by itself, or will it be contingent on prior understandings that frame its implementation?

Others assert that the government, which approved the arms confinement plan on August 5, is heading on the 5th of this month to approve the army command’s executive plan, which would represent three “victories”: the convening of the session, the discussion of the army command’s plan, and the approval of the plan, regardless of its timeline, which is a technical matter related to the military institution.

Notably, circles close to the Amal Movement-Hezbollah duo emphasize that all scenarios and steps will be open during the session if the first and third presidencies insist on proceeding with a military plan for the army command that includes a timeline for weapon exclusivity.

Among the scenarios is the withdrawal of the duo’s ministers from the session, reinforcing impressions that escalation of the crisis is not excluded, especially as other government partners insist on an outcome with a decisive decision approving a clear operational plan with a timeline for the army command.