Every morning, more than 3 billion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide—in homes, offices, and cafes—where the aroma and distinctive scent of coffee remain an indispensable daily ritual. However, behind this daily beverage lies a deep crisis affecting its price and sustainability.

Since early 2025, coffee prices have risen, with raw coffee bean prices reaching €7.23 per kilogram in February, the highest level recorded in global markets in decades. Although prices dropped to €5.32 in July, this remains significantly higher compared to the previous year’s €3.52. Amid continuous rises and slight falls, coffee prices continue to stir controversy as consumers feel the impact through increased prices in cafes and stores, where a latte can cost around €3.40 and a coffee with milk €2.60, reflecting a noticeable cost increase.

According to a report published by the Spanish newspaper El Economista, coffee grows in the so-called “Coffee Belt,” a region stretching between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, where about 25 million coffee farmers cultivate beans, making coffee the second most traded commodity after oil.

This region forms the heart of global coffee production, which faces increasing pressures due to climate change. Brazil, the largest global producer, has experienced severe droughts not seen in 70 years, while Vietnam, the second largest producer, suffered devastating floods following a drought period. Together, these two countries account for about 56% of global coffee production, so any disruption directly affects international markets.

In addition to climatic factors, armed conflicts and maritime transport tensions complicate shipping operations and increase costs, negatively impacting supply chains. Tariffs and trade restrictions have also led some countries to stockpile larger coffee quantities, increasing scarcity and pushing prices higher.

The most affected coffee types are Arabica, which accounts for 60-80% of global production, known for its mild flavor and low caffeine content but highly sensitive to heat and plant diseases like coffee rust. Robusta is more resilient but has a bitter taste and higher caffeine content, making it less preferred by many consumers.

The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture expects increased price pressures by the end of 2025 compared to 2024, as key coffee-producing regions face rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, threatening coffee cultivation sustainability.

Recent studies indicate that 15% of suitable coffee-growing land may become unsuitable by 2100 due to climate change. Recommendations include adopting shade-grown farming techniques, advanced irrigation systems, and developing drought- and disease-resistant varieties.

Despite global price increases, millions of small farmers suffer from reduced profits due to lower yields and higher input costs. The International Coffee Organization estimates about 12.5 million small farmers rely on coffee as their primary income source, including 265,000 families in Brazil and millions in Ethiopia.