We are today facing a pivotal event in the region.

While the world awaits the implementation of a ceasefire in Gaza, with some possible breaches, the most important is the international decision to end the war in stages, resembling the declaration of the end of an entire era.

October 9, 2025, is not an ordinary day.

It is a historic milestone that equals or even surpasses October 7, as it marks the closing of the war chapter in Gaza, reshaping the reality of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and determining the future of Netanyahu’s government amid unprecedented American intervention in scale and intensity.

Even in the Ukraine war, Washington did not show similar diplomatic enthusiasm.

Trump personally wanted to end the war, driven by a desire to appear as a peacemaker, perhaps eyeing a Nobel Prize.

But the policies of great powers are measured not by symbols but by results.

What comes after October 9 will be a real test for everyone.

If October 7 resembles Pearl Harbor, which brought America into World War II, or September 11, which brought it into Middle Eastern wars, then October 9 resembles the Yalta Conference, meaning the end of violence and the beginning of drawing new maps for peace and influence.

In the Palestinian file, Hamas’s adventure turned into a disaster.

It entered the war hoping to change the balance, but the balance turned against it.

Gaza was almost completely destroyed, and the results are clear: disarming Hamas and removing it from the military game, unless a “New Hamas” is born politically, reshaping its alliances, especially with Iran, which was one of the motives behind the October 7 operation.

On the other side, Netanyahu emerged with major gains but faces harsh tests after the war, as he has become practically unrestrained.

As for Lebanon, it stands on the edge of the same cliff.

The danger is imminent, and time is running out.

If the weapon is not withdrawn from Hezbollah’s hands, Lebanon will repeat Gaza’s scenario, but this time on its own soil.

The Palestinian experience clearly shows: whoever gambles with war outside the logic of the state drags his people into collapse.

Lebanon cannot afford a new adventure, and there is no path ahead except the state—otherwise, it is the path of suicide.