If Prime Minister François Bayrou hoped that far-right leader Marine Le Pen would avoid toppling the French government due to her ban from running for political office, he gravely misjudged.

In fact, Le Pen and her party, the National Rally, which leads opinion polls in France, appear set to play a decisive role in ousting Bayrou in a no-confidence vote scheduled for September 8. Le Pen and her party insist on exploiting the escalating political crisis to pressure for parliamentary elections and President Emmanuel Macron’s resignation.

Seeking to impose pressure on an unpopular €43.8 billion budget, Bayrou and Macron effectively bet that Le Pen, who leads the largest opposition party in the National Assembly, would participate in the vote when they called for the no-confidence vote last week.

This “gamble” had some logic, as Le Pen is banned from running due to a conviction for embezzlement, a ruling that cannot be appealed until next year. So why risk her parliamentary seat by triggering possible elections? Wouldn’t she prefer to blame Macron’s camp for the painful budget cuts?

But that is not how Le Pen saw it. About an hour after the no-confidence vote was announced, she pledged to rally her forces to topple Bayrou, blaming eight years of Macron’s rule for threatening France’s survival. She wrote on social media platform X: “Only dissolving the government will allow the French people to choose their destiny, which lies in recovery with the National Rally.”

This ended any speculation about a deal between Bayrou and Le Pen. National Rally MP Laurent Jacobelli insisted there should have been no doubt about Le Pen’s direction, saying: “These people imagine others are as low-level as they are, but this shows a misunderstanding of Marine Le Pen, who is not like them.”

While many assumed Bayrou somehow tested Le Pen’s position before calling the vote, the Prime Minister struggled to explain why he did not actually do so, somewhat unconvincingly suggesting in an interview with TF1 that he did not because opposition leaders were “on vacation.” Le Pen responded that she had not stopped working during the summer.

Few Options

Left-wing parties immediately announced their intention to vote against Bayrou, meaning his government is at risk unless a significant number of lawmakers change course.

Le Pen and her deputy Jordan Bardella are scheduled to meet Bayrou this week, but signals from the party make an agreement unlikely. If Bayrou falls, Macron faces few options for his successor, although rumors suggest he is considering appointing Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu. The National Rally and other voices calling for new elections say successive center-right and centrist politicians have failed to end the prolonged political crisis caused by Macron’s failed call for early elections last year.

Hung Parliament

A poll by Ifop after Bayrou’s speech showed 63% of respondents support returning to the polls, rising to 86% among National Rally voters.

But polls also show new elections could result in another hung parliament. No one knows if Macron will actually call elections, as last year’s surprise vote led to the current political deadlock and left deep scars in his camp.

Bardella, 29, who has TV appeal, has repeatedly called on Macron to resign despite the legal troubles facing his party leader, something he likely would not do without Le Pen’s approval. She still largely controls the National Rally’s communication strategy, which the party is trying to improve after mishandling the thorny succession issue following the court ruling.

Prime Minister

One theory is that Le Pen has accepted she will not be able to run for president in the near future and is considering the option of Bardella appointing her Prime Minister if he runs for the Élysée Palace and wins. Meanwhile, party spokesman Jacobelli strongly denied this, saying: “Marine Le Pen never gives up; she cannot accept that the opposition leader cannot run for elections.”

If a new vote, presidential or parliamentary, takes place, Le Pen plans to use all available means to run. After initial shock following the court decision, the far-right leader began consulting many lawyers and legal experts in the spring, according to two sources familiar with her legal strategy earlier this summer.

Senior Le Pen aides have also begun exploring another legal path to enable their “heroine” to run, including challenging the constitutionality of her electoral ban before the country’s Constitutional Court.

Bardella told TF1 last week: “Clearly, we are exploring all legal avenues so Marine Le Pen can run even if the party is dissolved,” adding, “There is a legal path, and although narrow, Marine Le Pen is fighting for it.” Reported by Politico.

Future Leader

While the French courts’ ban on far-right leader Marine Le Pen from running for president in 2027 raises doubts about who will end up in the future National Rally government, whether Le Pen as president and Jordan Bardella as prime minister or vice versa, their motives and priorities appear fully aligned. Ultimately, Le Pen’s more Gaullist and economically populist approach only works if it can be made financially sustainable. Bardella, whether as prime minister or future president, will add a necessary dose of economic realism to French governance. Without growth, private investment, and a credible plan to slow debt growth, the state cannot protect anyone.

The French right now has a seasoned figure reassuring voters (Le Pen) and a young one promising reform (Bardella). This mix may be the key to addressing France’s chronic problems: high debt, weak competitiveness, slow growth, and tragic talent flight, which have so far gone unchecked.

France has reinvented itself before, and if President Emmanuel Macron leaves the political stage and the National Rally takes over, it may do so again, this time with a unique and promising blend of Le Pen’s economic nationalism and Bardella’s more market-friendly program. At minimum, it will have a new government with a clear democratic mandate and enough political capital for change, say National Rally supporters. Change is exactly what France urgently needs.

If a new vote, presidential or parliamentary, takes place, Le Pen plans to use all available means to run.