Asian partnerships support China’s exports

Official customs data in China recorded a notable decline in the value of its exports to the United States in July 2025 by 6.1%, reaching $35.8 billion compared to $38.2 billion in the previous June. This decrease comes despite a slight improvement in the tone of bilateral relations following the latest trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

Conversely, Chinese exports worldwide increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.1%, indicating overall growth in global demand for Chinese products, at a time when the relative weight of the U.S. market in China’s export equation is shrinking.

Bilateral indicators

The decline in Chinese exports to the United States clearly reflects a long trajectory of structural changes in trade relations between the two countries. Since 2018, economic relations between Washington and Beijing have entered a phase of escalating tension, including the imposition of mutual tariffs, supply chain restrictions, and increasing measures to separate technical and regulatory systems between the sides.

Despite signs of mutual desire to manage disputes and keep them away from the trade path, recent developments confirm that structural challenges remain, including disputes over intellectual property rights, trade balance, and government support for some industries—issues with strategic dimensions that cannot be resolved by short-term agreements.

Comprehensive growth and relative decline

The decline in China’s exports to the United States does not statistically indicate a comprehensive contraction in the Chinese economy. Rather, it shows a strategic trend to redistribute exports toward other markets in light of diversifying trade partnerships. The 7.2% increase in global exports indicates strong demand for Chinese products in emerging, European, and Asian markets.

This trend reflects an economic policy based on expanding trade margins with economies not linked to the United States, driven by regional agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), as well as the continuation of the “Belt and Road” initiative, which supports alternative trade flows and strengthens China’s connections with multiple markets in Asia, Africa, and Europe.

From the American side, the decline in Chinese imports reflects Washington’s ongoing trend toward “reshoring” some strategic supply chains, especially in technology and vital products. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent shipping and supply crises revealed the American need to reduce dependence on foreign sources—particularly China—for securing essential products.