Global oil market participants expect the OPEC+ coalition to decide to maintain current production levels at its meeting scheduled for early next week, halting the recent series of production increases.

Representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in OPEC+ have sent mixed signals about their next step after restoring a previous production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day a year ahead of schedule. While demand has held up in recent months, the world is on track for a significant surplus by year-end, according to the International Energy Agency.

Global oil prices have fallen about 9% this year, as the sudden rise in OPEC+ production threatens to exacerbate the surplus caused by slowing fuel consumption in China and increased supplies from the United States, Brazil, and Canada.

Brent crude futures traded around $68 per barrel in London on Monday. While these prices represent a victory for former U.S. President Donald Trump, who continues to pressure oil-producing countries to lower prices, they threaten the revenues of oil producers worldwide—from Gulf countries to U.S. shale production centers—according to Bloomberg News.

Aldo Spanger, Head of Energy Market Planning at French bank BNP Paribas, said: “I expect OPEC+ to hold production steady during the current refinery maintenance season to assess whether the widely expected drop in crude oil prices will materialize.”

Officials from the coalition said their increased supplies partly aim to regain market share lost to competitors during years of cuts. Officially, unused excess production capacity in OPEC+ countries is expected to continue until the end of next year.

Despite this effort to maintain market share, most oil market participants and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said Saudi Arabia and its partners are unlikely to rush to pump additional supplies.

Seventeen respondents in the survey expected OPEC+ to approve keeping production levels steady in October when member representatives meet via video conference next Sunday to review production policy, while six participants expected the group to proceed with a modest production increase.

At their previous meeting last month, eight major countries in the alliance agreed to increase output by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, restoring the full previous production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day that was agreed upon in 2023 to limit crude price deterioration at that time.