Nikolai Petro, a university professor and senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, believes that Russia needs security guarantees just like Ukraine. Petro’s idea, presented on the Responsible Governance website, is based on the fact that NATO’s expansion, without including Russia—which requested membership four times—constitutes a “threat” to it. The solution, according to him, lies in a pan-European security architecture that includes both Ukraine and Russia.

Russia’s demand to join NATO poses a particular dilemma, as it denies the “aggressiveness” attributed to it. Assuming Russia requested membership to protect itself from the alliance, a question arises whether Russia’s intentions are purely defensive. What if the membership demand is a Moscow maneuver to make its future attack on Ukraine an internal war between two NATO members? This would complicate the American leadership’s ability to defend one side without attacking the other, undermining the alliance’s cohesion.

On the other hand, the U.S. rejection of Russia’s NATO membership was not fundamentally a refusal, at least according to the Western narrative. In 2021, former NATO Secretary General (1999-2003) George Robertson said that in 2000, Russian President Vladimir Putin asked him: “When will you invite us to join NATO?”

Robertson replied: “We don’t invite people to join NATO; they apply to join NATO.”

Putin responded: “Well, we are not standing in line with many countries that don’t matter.”

If Robertson’s account is accurate, the Russian reply is expressive for at least two reasons: “countries that don’t matter” conveys clear Russian disdain for Eastern European countries, reinforcing their fears about Moscow’s future dealings with them. The answer also reflects a Russian desire for preferential treatment that would override equality in accession rules, thus enhancing the appeal of joining.

Putin has a slightly different narrative he shared in 2017 with filmmaker Oliver Stone. Putin recounted how he told then-President Bill Clinton in 2000: “Let’s consider the option that Russia might join NATO.” Clinton replied: “Why not?” But the accompanying U.S. delegation “became very tense,” according to Putin.

Does Russia really need guarantees?

The West tried to reassure Moscow by establishing the NATO-Russia Council for dialogue and cooperation in 1997. However, it was suspended after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and effectively ended after the 2022 invasion. In any case, Russia’s joining NATO would not have been a significant additional pillar for its security, as Russia possesses the greatest nuclear arsenal in the world.

Moreover, pan-European security architecture is not new. It was proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who envisioned Europe “stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok.” Ultimately, Macron engaged in shuttle diplomacy to avoid war, a process that was not without humiliation (the famous table summit).