In occupied Jerusalem, questions are mounting in Israel regarding the readiness of the army to execute the plan to occupy Gaza City amid worrying data revealing a decline in both human and logistical readiness. According to Israeli army estimates, the compliance rate among reserve forces does not exceed 50-70%, with rising rates of conscientious objection, alongside frequent malfunctions in military vehicles and concerns over dwindling arms stock due to European restrictions and the German ban on arms shipments to Israel. Haaretz newspaper reported that many armored military vehicles have broken down, with army mechanics working intensively to repair tanks and troop carriers inside Gaza after 22 months of continuous combat operations. Politically, there is a clear divergence between the government and the military regarding the operation’s efficacy and objectives.

The military, represented by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, is pushing for acceptance of a partial prisoner exchange deal, arguing that pressure on Hamas has been exhausted. Conversely, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Gaza, maintains a hardline rhetoric, attempting to market the plan under the name ‘Iron Fist’ instead of ‘Gideon’s Vehicles 2’ to project decisiveness and deterrence. However, this rhetoric faces widespread criticism in Israeli media, which doubts the army’s ability to achieve a clear victory and warns of the repercussions of any new military failure on Israel’s deterrence image and the government’s future.

Amid expanding internal debate, the military, political, and media spheres intersect in a scene reflecting a deep crisis of confidence within Israel, raising questions about the realism of the Gaza occupation plan and the army’s capacity to implement it amid internal divisions and eroding operational readiness. Military analyst Amos Harel of Haaretz highlighted numerous questions suggesting the Israeli army’s unreadiness for a Gaza occupation, citing internal military reports of malfunctions in armored vehicles and tanks alongside rising refusal rates among reserve forces. An additional problem has emerged recently with Germany’s announcement to halt arms supplies to Israel, directly impacting the maintenance of Merkava tanks and engine replacements, as spare parts and engines are manufactured in Germany. Some tanks have completely broken down, threatening the army’s ability to conduct a large-scale invasion.

Regarding reserve call-ups, the army summoned about 60,000 soldiers expected to join their units starting September 2, but internal estimates are not reassuring, with compliance rates expected to be around 70% in some units and as low as 50% in others. These figures exclude soldiers who have already informed their commanders of their refusal to comply, rendering summons ineffective. Despite this, preparations for the military operation to control Gaza City continue at a normal pace, but claims that the operation will succeed in subjugating Hamas and forcing it to release hostages alive contradict previous experiences. Another internal crisis is the unprecedented rise in soldiers refusing military service for ideological reasons, according to an investigation by the ‘Zman Israel’ website. Data from the ‘There is a Limit’ movement, which supports conscientious objectors in the Israeli army, shows that 2025 recorded the highest level of military service refusal in the army’s history.

Since the war began, about 300 soldiers have sought help from the movement after refusing reserve service, mostly on Gaza fronts and some in the West Bank. About 100 soldiers applied in the first eight months of the war, with 75% of all applicants in 2025. This number exceeds by more than ten times the pre-war figures, where annual requests ranged between 10 and 15 soldiers, not exceeding 40 at the peak of previous wars. Current figures are over seven times higher than refusals during the First Lebanon War or the First and Second Intifadas. Writer and editor Tani Goldstein from ‘Zman Israel’ notes that despite these record numbers, they do not compare to the ‘gray objectors’—tens of thousands of reservists who do not report for service in Gaza for personal or unclear reasons.

Although compliance with reserve call-ups after October 7, 2023, reached about 160%, thanks to tens of thousands volunteering who were not originally summoned, it has dropped to 50% this year due to the ongoing war and delayed prisoner exchange deals. The Israeli army avoids directly prosecuting conscientious objectors, preferring to classify them as deserters to prevent ideological refusal from becoming a public phenomenon that might inspire others in Israeli society. The Gaza war has not only weakened confidence in political and military leadership but also deepened ideological refusal within the army, revealing a growing challenge in maintaining reserve forces’ cohesion despite military attempts to conceal this through classifications of desertion or absence.