The French government faces the risk of collapse after three major opposition parties declared they would not support a confidence vote announced by Prime Minister François Bayrou, scheduled for September 8. The far-right National Rally, the Greens, and the Socialists, whose support is crucial for Bayrou’s fate, stated they see no reason to back him. If the confidence vote is lost in the National Assembly, Bayrou’s government will fall. This uncertainty has alarmed investors, causing the CAC index of leading French stocks to close down 1.6%. In case of government collapse, President Emmanuel Macron can immediately appoint a new prime minister, ask Bayrou to stay on as head of a caretaker government, or call for early elections. Bayrou acknowledged that seeking confidence in a deeply divided parliament is a risky gamble, but said doing nothing is even riskier given the country’s huge debt.

The vote will measure whether he has enough parliamentary support to push through budget cuts of up to 44 billion euros ($51.51 billion), aiming to curb a deficit that reached 5.8% of GDP last year, nearly double the EU’s official limit of 3%.