An Iraqi economic writer, one of the first Arab journalists specialized in monitoring energy markets and oil affairs, with a doctorate from the United States and extensive experience in journalism and specialized bulletins, also worked at OAPEC and taught international relations.

There are widespread attempts in global energy studies to reconsider the assumptions adopted in the early last decade.

The new assumptions, which have begun to change the course of future energy policies, especially the global energy transition by mid-century, stem from new global phenomena, including:

– The effects based on the high increase in the world population, especially in developing countries.

– The impact of population increases in developing countries on long-term energy demand.

– The current rapid and high increases in energy demand.

– The continuous annual rise in petroleum consumption and investment.

– The current and expected high and rapid increase in electricity consumption.

OPEC reviewed these multiple assumptions in its recent annual future study “World Oil Outlook 2050” and supported its conclusions with figures.

OPEC’s perspective represents a new trend in the course of future energy policies. OPEC’s proposals are expected to lead to a new review of the future energy path for 2050 and the attempt to “zero emissions.” It is important to note that OPEC’s study does not negate the necessity of “zero emissions,” but at the same time points to the importance of oil consumption and its role in the global energy basket.

OPEC’s future study starts from the assumption that the global economy is going through much “uncertainty.” However, this prevailing uncertainty does not prevent thinking about the future and reconsidering previously adopted assumptions.

The key in this reconsideration is to take into account the interests and views of all parties as much as possible, provided the study is thorough, supported by transparent figures and conclusions, making it a credible and thus feasible project for all parties.

The world population reached about 8.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to rise to 9.7 billion by 2050. The labor force is expected to increase to 6.1 billion by 2050. Estimates also indicate a possible increase in the urban population by about 1.5 billion, raising the urban population from 8.2 billion in 2024 to 9.7 billion in 2050.

The urban population is expected to rise from 58% to 68%, reaching 1.9 billion by 2050. Meanwhile, the global economy is expected to grow from $171 trillion in 2024 to $358 trillion in 2050, while the global per capita income is projected to increase from about $21,000 in 2024 to about $37,100 by 2050.

Developing countries are expected to play the largest role in this area, which will in turn drive population growth and raise living standards to higher economic levels than economic growth rates.

In light of these high economic indicators, energy demand is expected to rise from about 308 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024 to 378 million barrels in 2050, an increase of about 23% over the next quarter century. This increase will come from developing countries, mostly India, as well as other Asian countries, Africa, and the Middle East. Demand from OECD (industrial) countries is expected to stabilize or decline.

Projections also indicate that demand for all types of primary energy sources will increase by 2050, except coal. Due to government support policies and expected declines in electricity generation, demand for sustainable energies (especially wind and solar) is expected to increase by about 40.5 million barrels per day of oil equivalent over the next quarter century. Demand for oil and gas is also expected to rise due to their role as competitively priced energy sources and the continuous availability of oil without interruptions to consumers. Accordingly, oil demand is expected to increase by 18.2 million barrels per day of oil equivalent, and natural gas demand by about 20 million barrels per day of oil equivalent by 2050.

At the same time, after a considerable decline in recent years, demand for nuclear fuel for electricity generation is expected to increase by about 10 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2050. Meanwhile, coal demand is expected to decline by about 30.4 million barrels per day of oil equivalent, as it is an undesirable energy source due to its negative climate impacts and competition from other energy sources.

Oil is expected to maintain the highest share in the energy basket by 2050, recording about 30%. Oil and gas are expected to maintain a combined share slightly above 50% by 2050. Meanwhile, sustainable energy sources are expected to increase their share in the energy basket by about 13.5% by 2050, or 10% above 2024 levels.

Electricity consumption is expected to increase significantly. Global electricity generation capacity is expected to rise from about 31,500 terawatt-hours in 2024 to about 57,500 terawatt-hours by 2050, due to increased demand from households, commercial establishments, industries, and data centers. About 75% of this growing demand is expected to come from developing countries, with 60% from Asia.

Indicators also show that the major increase in electricity generation sources will come from sustainable energies (mostly wind and solar), expected to expand from about 4,900 terawatt-hours in 2024 to 26,000 terawatt-hours in 2050.