In the past, a girl of childbearing age in Salt Lake City grew up in a typical family with usually religious parents who married before age 25. Today, life for an American girl in Utah is quite similar, as the state remains more traditional with larger families than anywhere else in America. However, the mother now has fewer than two children on average despite growing up with three or more siblings. In 1960, the total fertility rate in the United States, or the average number of children a woman is expected to have, was 3.6 children, but by 2022 it had dropped to 1.7. Recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows a further decline to just under 1.6, the lowest recorded rate, with women across all states having fewer children. Looking at birth distribution reveals clear fluctuations; in recent years, birth rates slightly declined in places that had long low rates.

Four of the five states with the lowest fertility in 2014, including Connecticut and Massachusetts, saw below-average declines. The drop was sharp in historically high-fertility states like Alaska and North Dakota. Overall, states with above-average fertility in 2014 accounted for over 80% of the collapse in U.S. birth rates over the past decade. This latest phase of the long-term fertility decline poses challenges for policymakers and pro-natal researchers who have long focused on low-fertility, often urban and better-educated states. For example, economist Lyman Stone, a former advisor in President Donald Trump’s first administration, urged other states to follow Utah’s approach, where relatively few women delay childbirth for careers and high religiosity supports family stability. The White House is reportedly considering allocating college seats to couples who postpone studies to have children. Policymakers worry that the recent birth rate decline is concentrated in rural areas with lower education levels.

Despite many conservatives in Utah, they have fewer children, and even in spacious areas, birth rates are falling, reflecting a behavioral shift among young women with fewer unplanned births. While most Utah women had their first child before age 25 in 2005, less than one in four do so today. Policymakers seeking to encourage more births have limited tools. The U.S. fertility rate has been sharply below 2.1, the replacement level needed to maintain population stability without immigration, for nearly two decades. Few convincing explanations have emerged for this trend, raising concern among researchers and the White House that low birth rates threaten recovery prospects. In seeking solutions, new approaches may be necessary. Advocates across the political spectrum agree that people would have more children if living costs were lower and want government policies enabling parents and future parents to build their dream families, though they differ on how to achieve this.

Lyman Stone said, “If we are to support childcare, I think homemaker allowances should also be granted to maintain equality and avoid discrimination.” He added, “But generally, we should not provide support in the traditional way; we should not support childcare or staying at home; we should just give parents money and let them choose what’s best for their families.” Stone noted concerns about economic decline, dependency ratios, social security funding, innovation, cultural loss, and societal decline. In a June post, he singled out “community pro-natalists” covering a wide range of political affiliations. The Trump administration has not specified how it will encourage more births beyond cash incentives in new legislation. The White House press office emailed a quote from spokesperson Taylor Rogers echoing some pro-birth positions described by Stone. Dr.

Natalia Kanem, executive director of the UN Population Fund, who recently surveyed over 14,000 adults in 14 countries, said, “Fertility rates are falling sharply because many feel unable to form the families they want, and this is the real crisis.” Nearly one-fifth (18%) of participants under 50 said they do not expect to have as many children as they want, with over 50% blaming economic barriers.