France, the largest wheat producer in the European Union, is facing the prospect of recording its largest wheat stockpile in over 20 years after a sharp drop in external demand from both Algeria and China. This threatens export opportunities despite traders’ attempts to capitalize on the slowdown in Russian shipments to boost sales to other markets, according to a Reuters report published on October 13.

Analysts explained that the sharp contraction in French exports to Algeria and China over the past year, due to diplomatic tensions with Algeria and China’s reduction of overall grain imports, led to an annual surplus accumulation of nearly 4 million tons in the French market.

The report noted that abundant global supplies combined with weak demand pushed European soft wheat prices to their lowest levels in five years, increasing pressure on French farmers who face growing competition from low-cost producers in Eastern Europe.

Maxence Devillier from Argus Commodity Analytics said, “The big problem is that there is no real alternative to the Algerian market,” pointing out that losing this traditional market has left a gap that is difficult to fill.

Last season, the impact of the decline was less apparent due to a weak harvest, with French soft wheat exports to non-EU countries dropping to 3.5 million tons, the lowest level since the start of the century.

For the 2025/2026 season, exports are expected to rise to between 7 and 8 million tons thanks to improved harvests and a slowdown in Russian competition, but this increase will not be enough to absorb the production surplus. Analysts estimate French stocks could reach about 3.5 to 4 million tons, the highest level in 21 years.

The new season starting in July saw a positive performance for French wheat benefiting from competitive prices, while Russia—the world’s largest exporter—faced a shaky start to its harvest.

According to market data, French exporters sold about 200,000 tons of wheat in August, followed by a noticeable increase in sales in September, including rare shipments to Bangladesh and Thailand.

In Morocco, France’s most important market outside the EU, Paris benefited from disruptions in Russian shipments to record strong sales. The French Grain Association (Intercéréales) expects soft wheat exports to Morocco to rise to 3.5 million tons this season, compared to only 1.5 million tons in 2024/2025.

Indonesia, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, could represent an additional outlet for French wheat once the suspended export license is renewed, according to traders.

Reuters analysts believe these developments could redraw the map of European grain exports in 2026, as France faces dual pressures from declining external demand and rising domestic production, posing the challenge of managing a historic surplus that could affect agricultural prices across the entire European Union.