The aroma and distinctive scent of coffee remain an indispensable part of daily rituals, but behind this daily beverage lies a deep crisis affecting its price and sustainability.

Recent studies indicate that 15% of lands suitable for coffee cultivation may become unsuitable by 2100 due to climate change. Recommendations call for adopting shade-grown agriculture techniques, advanced irrigation systems, and developing drought- and disease-resistant varieties.

Since early 2025, coffee prices have surged significantly, with the price of raw coffee beans reaching 7.23 euros per kilogram, the highest level recorded in global markets in decades.

Although the price dropped to 5.32 euros in July, this remains substantially higher compared to last year’s 3.52 euros. Amid continuous rises and slight falls, coffee prices continue to spark controversy as consumers feel the impact through increased prices in cafes and stores, where a latte can cost around 3.40 euros and a milk coffee 2.60 euros, reflecting a notable cost increase.

The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture expects production to decline by the end of 2025 compared to 2024, increasing price pressures. Key coffee-producing regions face rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, threatening the sustainability of coffee cultivation.

Despite global price increases, millions of small farmers suffer from reduced profits due to lower yields and higher agricultural input costs. The International Coffee Organization estimates about 12.5 million smallholder farmers depend on coffee as their main income source, including 265,000 families in Brazil and millions in Ethiopia.

Coffee is expected to grow in the so-called “Coffee Belt,” a region extending between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, where about 25 million coffee bean farmers cultivate the crop, which is the second most traded commodity after oil.

This region forms the heart of global coffee production, which is under increasing pressure due to climate changes. Brazil, the largest global producer, has experienced severe droughts not seen in 70 years, while Vietnam, the second largest producer, faced devastating floods following a drought period. Together, these countries account for about 56% of global coffee production, so any disruption directly affects international markets.

In addition to climatic factors, armed conflicts and maritime transport tensions complicate shipping operations and increase costs, negatively impacting supply chains. Tariffs and trade restrictions have also led some countries to stockpile larger coffee quantities, increasing scarcity and driving prices up.

The most affected coffee type is Arabica, which accounts for 60-80% of global production. It is known for its mild flavor and low caffeine content but is highly sensitive to heat and plant diseases such as coffee rust. Robusta, on the other hand, is more resilient but has a bitter taste and higher caffeine content, making it less preferred by many consumers.