The winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is scheduled to be announced on Friday, in a year dominated by a months-long campaign by U.S. President Donald Trump to win what is arguably the world’s most prestigious award.

Trump has openly expressed his desire to receive the prize, which four of his predecessors have won: Barack Obama in 2009, Jimmy Carter in 2002, Woodrow Wilson in 1919, and Theodore Roosevelt in 1906.

All won the prize while in office except Carter, and Obama was chosen less than eight months after taking office, similar to Trump’s current situation.

However, when Jørgen Watne Frydnes, chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, takes the microphone at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo at 0900 GMT, experts completely rule out mentioning Trump’s name.

Gaza Agreement Likely Too Late to Influence This Year’s Prize

On Wednesday, Trump announced a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the release of detainees as part of the first phase of his initiative to end the war in the region.

According to the Norwegian daily Verdens Gang, the committee made its decision on Monday, before the announcement. Even if its five members were aware of the agreement before deciding on this year’s prize, it is unlikely they would rush a decision that usually takes months of deliberation.

Nobel Prize experts consider Trump’s win highly unlikely, attributing this to what they see as his efforts to dismantle the post-World War II international order, which the Nobel Committee highly values.

Instead, experts expect the committee might highlight “emergency rooms,” a volunteer network of Sudanese, or a United Nations agency such as the UN Refugee Agency, UNICEF, the International Court of Justice, or aid organizations like the Red Cross or Doctors Without Borders.

They might also spotlight journalists’ work, after a year that saw an unprecedented number of media workers killed while covering news, most in Gaza. If the committee goes this route, it may honor the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders.

The Spirit of Alfred Nobel’s Will

The Norwegian Nobel Committee, composed of five members, bases its decisions primarily on the will of Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel. The will also forms the basis for Nobel Prizes in Literature, Chemistry, Physics, and Medicine.

Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, says Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, and his trade war with allies contradict the spirit of Nobel’s will.

How Does the Nobel Committee Make Its Decisions?

Insiders say the winner selection comes after year-long deliberations, discussing strengths and weaknesses of nominees by the five-member committee.

Nominations must reach the committee by January 31. Committee members can also submit nominations but must do so before the first meeting in February.

The committee then meets roughly monthly. The decision is usually made in August or September but can be made later, as happened this year.

The Nobel Committee says it is accustomed to working under pressure from individuals or their supporters who believe they deserve the prize.

Frydnes, chairman of the Norwegian committee, said, “All politicians want to win the Nobel Peace Prize.”

He added, “We hope the ideals supported by the Nobel Peace Prize are something all political leaders should strive for… We notice the interest, whether in the United States or worldwide, but beyond that, we work the same way we always do.”