The failure of both the Republican and Democratic parties to reach an agreement on the budget or spending cap reflects the deep political divide in Washington, resulting in uncertainty in growth and financial stability forecasts for the coming months. The White House estimates weekly losses of around $15 billion due to the shutdown.

Despite the complex political scene, Wall Street indicators have shown a remarkable ability to ignore the shutdown’s repercussions, with US stocks continuing to hit record levels—gaining last week—driven by investor optimism about major companies’ earnings and hopes for interest rate cuts.

In this context, the short-term political dispute in Washington is considered a mere temporary distraction at present.

The Russell 2000 index for small companies also rose about 2% during the week, as markets feel some confidence—based on previous shutdown experiences—that the government shutdown’s effects will not be long-lasting.

Regarding gold, Evans’ analysis points to a positive “upward trend,” as the yellow metal is traditionally a safe haven during political uncertainty. Its role as a non-sovereign alternative to the dollar is structurally strengthened by technology, as blockchain encoding makes this asset more liquid and easier to trade globally.

Gold continued to break record levels, surpassing $4,000 per ounce as investors flocked to it as a safe haven amid the government shutdown and economic uncertainty.

Evans points to one consequence of the shutdown related to the absence of September unemployment and jobs data, which was scheduled to be released last Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, saying: “We now rely on alternative data, including private sources like Challenger… In light of this, the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the end of the month will be difficult due to the lack of government data.”

He continues: “It is not good for the US, considered the world’s strongest economy, to fail to publish reliable statistics on time. While US employment figures were already questioned due to large adjustments, now we have nothing but guesses, and when the next employment figures are released, they will be heavily distorted due to the government shutdown, which has led to the temporary layoff of more than 750,000 employees.”

“Two main factors are currently driving our economy: the recent interest rate cuts and rampant inflation.”

He notes that Bitcoin, in particular, seems to benefit from the weak dollar, as dollar-denominated capital moves to the digital currency as a means to avoid its value erosion. Gold shows almost the same effect, but Bitcoin’s position is more interesting because it allows money to be transferred out of the US quickly, which gold cannot do.

Typically, the sectors most affected by government shutdowns are those directly dependent on federal spending or government contracts, while the financial sector usually experiences limited volatility. However, small-cap stocks, which rely on local demand, may face greater pressure, especially if the shutdown prolongs and affects consumer confidence and public spending. But so far, there has been no noticeable impact on small-cap stocks on Wall Street, with the Russell 2000 index reaching record highs.