Chinese President Xi Jinping during the military parade (AP)

“Bad news for Taiwan.” Consequently, it is bad news for America.

This is the conclusion of Sam Roggeveen, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute, regarding China’s military parade on September 3. Roggeveen pointed out that the modern Chinese weapons, whether those displayed in the parade or those revealed over the past year, indicate that China’s primary focus is currently on becoming the top regional power, not a global one. And this seems to be happening. According to Roggeveen’s article in Foreign Policy, the parade demonstrated that the regional military balance has shifted irreversibly.

China showcased a range of nuclear ballistic missiles such as the “DF-31 PG,” drones accompanying fighter jets like the “Long Wingman,” and third-generation submarine-launched ballistic missiles, among others. It also displayed newly established military branches such as the space-air force.

Ironically, Roggeveen’s colleague at the same institute, retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan, was not concerned about Chinese hardware. Although the air, land, and naval platforms were more advanced than their Western counterparts, newer does not necessarily mean better, in his view.

Military technology does not necessarily equate to combat effectiveness, as was evident in Ukraine at the start of the Russian invasion. Moreover, China lacks recent combat experience. Its 1979 war against Vietnam ended with the occupation of some border towns at a high cost, without dismantling the Vietnam-backed Cambodian government.

In the 2020 border clashes with India, China suffered four fatalities compared to twenty Indian soldiers killed. The engagement was almost hand-to-hand due to rules governing the types of weapons allowed on the border. However, the performance of Chinese fighters in the Pakistani Air Force during the recent May war was positive. One problem the Chinese military may face is the extent of corruption and poor discipline, reflected in the dismissal of several military and political leaders in recent years, including two defense ministers. Regardless of doubts about China’s real military strength, war games show that America would face a huge, possibly catastrophic challenge if a conflict erupted over Taiwan.

One of the parade’s core purposes, as noted by the Chinese site Global Times, was to counter a narrative “that ignores the huge contribution China made as the main battlefield in the East.” The parade also aimed to remind that China is a founding member of the new world order, showing determination to defend peace and issuing a “warning to all powers trying to turn back history.”

Thus, the military parade had a strong political aspect as well. China sent a message about its solid partnership with anti-American countries such as Russia, North Korea, and Iran, and another about the nature of the new presence, including countries in Southeast Asia, indicating its success in courting “swing” governments there.