The traditional opposition in Nigeria lost its main strongholds in the recent by-elections, with Kaduna state witnessing heavy defeats for the African Democratic Congress, which includes many figures opposing the ruling regime led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) secured 34,000 votes compared to 11,000 for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), while the African Democratic Congress candidate received only 3,477 votes, according to Africa Report. This was the first time the APC won in Kaduna, a stronghold of the PDP since 1999. The ruling party also won by a large margin in other areas, including the Basawa constituency in Zaria city, gathering over 10,000 votes against 5,000 for the PDP and 146 for the African Democratic Congress. These results shocked the opposition, which had organized rallies days before the vote with wide public turnout, giving opposition candidates hope of winning.

Former Kaduna governor Nasir Rufai campaigned and attended rallies to encourage voters to support opposition candidate Alex Adano. Former presidential candidate Peter Obi, who received over 6 million votes in the 2023 elections, suffered a crushing defeat, showing his influence has declined to a record low. A week before the elections, Obi announced that internal conflict in the Labour Party prevented it from fielding official candidates and urged his supporters to vote for the opposition in the African Democratic Congress. Obi also visited his hometown in Onitsha, Anambra state, to support opposition candidate Justina Azuka, but she came second by a large margin with the ruling party candidate receiving over 90,000 votes against 19,000 for the opposition. The recent elections also saw the absence of former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who is popular but did not participate and was reportedly abroad.

In Ogun state, the ruling APC showed dominance with a landslide victory in the Remo federal constituency despite a campaign led by former Osun governor Rauf Aregbesola for the opposition, who failed to convince voters. In Osun state, the ruling party gathered over 41,000 votes compared to 289 for the list supported by Aregbesola, who was once a close ally of President Tinubu before their 2022 fallout, which drew wide ridicule on social media. Opposition figures remained silent after the results, busy reviewing what happened and reshaping their strategies. Analysts warned against rushing to judge the opposition’s future, reminding that by-elections often have low voter turnout and results usually favor the ruling party. Political observer and ruling party member Adamu Garba said state governors usually control by-election results due to their financial resources.