Extreme climate events continue to heavily impact the world’s food basket, with notable price jumps in potatoes, rice, fruits, olive oil, cocoa, and coffee due to unprecedented heatwaves, droughts, and floods. As the climate crisis deepens, market and consumer pressures increase amid warnings that the current inflation wave may be just the beginning of a longer period of sharp price fluctuations.

According to a report published by the Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia, Spain is currently experiencing a heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in most regions. This climate extremity, alongside droughts and floods, significantly affects shopping baskets, raising food costs in some cases by up to 280%.

The report states that common foods worldwide such as potatoes, rice, fruits, vegetables, olive oil, cocoa, and coffee have all been affected by extreme climate events, leading to price increases. A recent report from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS) analyzed 16 cases in 18 countries between 2022 and 2024, linking price hikes to heatwaves, droughts, or heavy rainfall, many surpassing historical precedents before 2020.

For example, in the UK, potato prices rose 22% after heavy winter rains, which scientists say were 20% more intense and 10 times more likely due to climate change. In California and Arizona, vegetable prices increased by 80% in November 2022 following severe summer droughts characterized by water shortages, extreme heat, and dry soil.

The drought hitting Spain and Italy between 2022-2023, affecting Southern Europe, caused a 50% annual increase in olive oil prices in the EU since January 2024.

The most notable case was the global cocoa price, which jumped 280% in April last year after a heatwave in Ivory Coast and Ghana two months earlier, with scientists attributing a 4-degree Celsius temperature increase to climate change. These two countries produce about 60% of the world’s cocoa.

The global coffee market also saw significant impacts. Brazil, the largest Arabica coffee exporter, and Vietnam, the top Robusta producer, experienced price rises of 55% globally in August after Brazil’s 2023 drought, which scientists estimate became 10 to 30 times more likely due to climate change. Robusta coffee prices doubled in July 2024 following record heatwaves in Vietnam and Asia.

Onion, potatoes, and rice prices were also affected. In India, onion and potato prices rose over 80% in the second quarter of last year after a heatwave. Rice prices in Japan increased 48% in September 2024 due to high temperatures.

Maximilian Kotz, a researcher at BSC and lead author of the study, said, “Until we reach net-zero emissions, extreme climate will continue to worsen, already damaging crops and raising food prices worldwide,” adding, “Food price increases are the second climate impact people notice in their lives after extreme heat,” warning of the problems this causes for low-income families.

He continued, “Unfortunately, when prices rise, poor families tend to rely on cheaper, less nutritious foods, which have been linked to many diseases such as cancer, diabetes, and heart diseases.”

Economists believe that ongoing severe climate phenomena, such as droughts in Asia and floods in Europe, may push food prices to record levels in the coming months, especially amid declining agricultural production and rising transportation and storage costs.

Analysts confirm that global markets are heading towards a period of “chronic food inflation,” where staples like rice, olive oil, and cocoa will be more vulnerable to sharp fluctuations, directly impacting food security in developing countries and increasing global economic disparities.