Economic expert John Luca, specializing in commodity and precious metals markets, predicts a continued rise in gold prices over the coming months and years, driven by geopolitical tensions, global monetary policies, and growing international demand. Luca explained that gold will maintain its status as a safe haven amid global disturbances and interest rate fluctuations, expecting increases up to 35% during 2025 before stabilizing or escalating further in 2026. He noted that gold directly reflects global economic dynamics, saying, “With escalating trade tensions between the US and China despite their current easing, and ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, prices are likely to rise significantly.” These forecasts are supported by reports from major banks confirming increased central bank purchases, which continue to boost their gold reserves as protection against inflation and deflation.

Luca’s predictions are based on recent data from international financial institutions, expecting the average ounce price to reach about $3,220 in 2025, potentially hitting $3,400 in 2026 if tensions persist. He added that the US dollar’s weakness, due to Federal Reserve rate cuts until the end of 2025, makes gold more attractive compared to bonds. According to investment banks, JPMorgan sees prices surpassing $3,675 in Q4 2025, possibly exceeding $4,000 by mid-2026 in optimistic scenarios, while Citibank expects a drop below $3,000 if global economies improve and demand declines. UBS forecasts gold reaching $3,500 in 2025 with continued rally in 2026, and Goldman Sachs raised estimates to $3,300 by end 2025 following strong inflows into gold ETFs. Deutsche Bank expects an average price of $3,139 in 2025 and $3,700 in 2026, based on historical data showing gold’s recovery during crises. Regarding the local market, Luca said Egypt is significantly influenced by global trends but faces internal challenges such as currency fluctuations and economic pressures.

He expects the price of 21-carat gold, the most traded, to range between 4,500 and 4,700 Egyptian pounds per gram by September 2025, noting that the Central Bank of Egypt’s foreign reserves have reached record levels, enhancing Egypt’s position in the regional market.