Palestinians in Khan Younis celebrate following the announcement of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump has achieved a major breakthrough in his foreign policy, the most significant since his return to the White House nine months ago, by pushing Israel and Hamas to sign a ceasefire in Gaza. If it holds, this could mark the beginning of an end to the two-year-long war and possibly lay the groundwork for a broader regional détente.

The agreement came after intensive efforts over three days at the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, with high-level American, Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish presence, and delegations from Hamas and Israel. It represents the first phase of a 20-point American plan, some points of which face reservations from both Hamas and Israel.

For the first time, Trump personally invested his influence to reach a ceasefire and the release of 48 Israeli prisoners, including 20 still alive, within 72 hours of the ceasefire taking effect, in exchange for 1,950 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. It is widely believed that without Trump’s pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a positive outcome would not have been possible.

What are the chances that the new ceasefire will succeed and not collapse like the two previous ceasefires in 2023 and 2025, after which Israel recovered more than 148 prisoners and then resumed the war?

What gives this new agreement even a slight chance of stability is Trump’s involvement in efforts to end the war and the existence of a political framework for the “day after” in Gaza, although doubts remain strong about whether the difficult stages of the American plan will proceed smoothly.

Overcoming these difficulties is Trump’s responsibility, who promised that the United States would be “part of the process to maintain peace” in Gaza and pledged to treat all parties “fairly,” leaving many questions about the meaning of his words. Nevertheless, Trump’s ultimate goal of achieving a “strong and lasting peace” between Israel and all Palestinian territories remains difficult to attain in the near term.

Considering the upcoming challenges, there is an opportunity to implement the remaining points of the American plan, which Trump cannot enter into a broader regional peace process without stabilizing Gaza first.

So far, Trump has prevented Netanyahu from annexing the West Bank in response to recent European recognitions of the State of Palestine and pressured him to accept his plan, which for the first time included the phrase “end the war” rather than just a temporary ceasefire. This could lead to the collapse of the Israeli governing coalition soon. Attention must be paid to the meeting held by Israeli opposition parties on Wednesday, where they announced their support for the American plan but also confirmed they would do their utmost to topple the government in the coming winter.

Following the American plan could cost Netanyahu his right-wing coalition, which relies on support from extremist right-wing parties, potentially leading to early elections, with the winning party still uncertain. However, after recovering the Israeli prisoners, Netanyahu will use this in a broad propaganda campaign claiming “war objectives achieved” to strengthen his position in any upcoming elections.

Trump will now quickly add Gaza to the list of seven conflicts he halted during his second term, thereby boosting his chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, which coincidentally is announced today.