Turkey announced it would cut economic and trade relations with Israel in a move described as controversial, amid estimates that it may not last long.

On Friday, August 29, Turkey declared it had decided to sever all economic and trade ties with Israel, marking the sharpest step in years in the strained relations between the two countries.

The decision included closing Turkish ports to Israeli ships, banning Turkish ships from entering Israeli ports, and prohibiting Israeli planes from using Turkish airspace.

The Jerusalem Post quoted Turkish diplomatic sources saying the airspace closure applies only to official Israeli government planes and those carrying weapons, not to civilian flights. However, Ankara has not issued an official statement confirming this clarification.

Despite the escalatory nature of the measures, analysts believe their actual impact may remain limited. In 2023, the trade volume between Turkey and Israel reached about 7 billion USD, with Turkish exports constituting around 6% of Israel’s total imports, while Israeli exports to Turkey ranged between 1.5 and 1.6 billion USD.

Israel has faced similar restrictions before but managed to absorb them by diversifying supply chains. The Bank of Israel previously reported that the “open structure” of the economy helped cushion shocks, even for sensitive inputs like cement.

The enforcement has not always been strict. Reuters noted that Turkish exporters resorted to shipping goods via Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania when previous restrictions were imposed, while later data showed an increase in Turkish exports recorded to Palestinian territories, raising suspicions that some goods reached Israel through re-exporting.

The Jerusalem Post reported in August 2024 that “Israeli army bases were powered by electricity from a generation plant owned by a Turkish company,” illustrating how long-term contracts and infrastructure links make it difficult to completely halt economic relations despite harsh political decisions.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intensified his rhetoric against Israel alongside these decisions, using strong language to describe the conflict to address domestic considerations and bolster his regional position. However, experts point out that economic and diplomatic calculations limit Ankara’s ability to go far in this rupture.

Turkey remains a NATO member and heavily relies on Western markets and international investments. Prolonged freezing of trade and flights linked to Israel would also harm Turkish producers who depend on the Israeli consumer market and the technology and services it provides.

The rivalry between the two sides is not limited to economics but extends to broader regional issues, from the Eastern Mediterranean to northern Syria. The Jerusalem Post previously noted that Israel and Turkey discussed establishing a “deconfliction mechanism” in Syria to avoid clashes in the shared operational area.

Observers suggest Turkey will enforce its new measures strictly for weeks or months but is unlikely to escalate to a full and permanent rupture. Turkish goods can transit through third-country ports, while Israeli importers continue expanding their supplier networks in other markets.

According to the Jerusalem Post, “the smarter bet is that practice will precede statements again once the uproar dies down,” indicating that Turkish policy is often louder than its practical impact.