Oil prices fell on Monday after the Kurdistan Region of Iraq resumed crude oil exports through Turkey over the weekend, coinciding with OPEC+ plans for another production increase in November, adding to global supplies.

Brent crude futures dropped 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.70 a barrel, after settling at their highest level since July 31 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $65.23 a barrel, giving up most of Friday’s gains.

Michael McCarthy, CEO of the investment platform “Momo” in Australia and New Zealand, said: “Ongoing concerns over increased production limit gains, but near-term bearish outlooks are pushing crude oil prices into a decline at the start of the trading week.”

The Iraqi Ministry of Oil stated that crude oil flowed on Saturday through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq to Turkey for the first time in two and a half years, breaking a temporary deadlock.

The Iraqi Oil Minister told the Kurdish Rudaw channel on Friday that an agreement between the Iraqi federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and foreign oil producers operating in the region will allow between 180,000 and 190,000 barrels per day of crude oil to flow to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

The United States has pushed for the resumption of production, which is expected to eventually return up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil to global markets, at a time when OPEC+ is boosting production to increase its market share.

OPEC and its partners in the OPEC+ alliance are likely to approve another crude oil production increase of no less than 137,000 barrels per day at their meeting next Sunday, as rising oil prices encourage the group to try to regain more market share, according to sources familiar with the talks. However, OPEC+ is currently pumping about 500,000 barrels per day less than its targets, defying market expectations of oversupply.

OPEC+ reversed its production cut strategy started in April and has already raised quotas by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, about 2.4% of global demand, to boost market share after pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.

Eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on October 5 to decide on November production. OPEC+ pumps about half of the world’s oil, including OPEC members plus Russia and other allies.

Oil prices fell from over $80 a barrel at the start of the year but have traded in a narrow range between $60 and $70 a barrel since OPEC began increasing production in April. Prices rose to their highest levels since August 1 on Friday, surpassing $70 a barrel, supported by Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia that disrupted refining and shipments from one of the world’s largest oil exporters.

The group’s total production cuts peaked at 5.85 million barrels per day, consisting of three different elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, plus 1.65 million barrels per day from eight members, and another 2 million barrels per day from the entire group.

The eight producers intend to fully cancel one part of these cuts – 2.2 million barrels per day – by the end of September. In October, they began canceling a second part, 1.65 million barrels per day, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ also approved the United Arab Emirates to increase production by 300,000 barrels per day between April and September.

Meanwhile, Brent and WTI crude rose more than 5% last week, marking their biggest weekly gains since June, as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure reduced the country’s fuel exports.

Lumumba Okugbawa, secretary-general of the Nigerian Oil Workers’ Union, wrote: “The refinery’s crude oil supply valves must be closed” and loading of ships bound for it stopped immediately. Dangote refinery announced that the shutdowns were part of restructuring to improve safety and efficiency.

It added late Saturday that “there is no law granting the Nigerian Oil Workers’ Union the right to direct its branches to cut gas and crude oil supplies to the Dangote refinery or stop it at all,” or interfere with its contracts with sellers and suppliers or disrupt them.

This dispute exacerbates pressure on the $20 billion refinery, which announced it would suspend oil sales in naira starting September 28 due to crude oil supply shortages and exchange rate volatility. This move raised concerns about rising fuel prices and increased pressure on Nigeria’s fragile currency.

In Saudi Arabia, the kingdom’s foreign direct investment inflows fell in the second quarter to their lowest level since 2023, recording 1 billion riyals, down 12% year-on-year. According to the General Authority for Statistics, outflows plunged 75% in Q2 year-on-year to 2.09 billion riyals, the lowest level since Q4 2023. As a result, net foreign direct investment inflows in the kingdom in Q2 reached 22.82 billion riyals, up 15% year-on-year, but down 4% quarter-on-quarter compared to 23.6 billion riyals in Q1.

The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed preliminary sanctions on the Russian oil sector on January 10 and gave Gazprom Neft 45 days to exit ownership of NIS. After a series of exemptions since then, the U.S. announced on Friday it will impose sanctions starting October 1.

The Serbian National Oil Refinery company, NIS – in which Gazprom Neft owns a 44.9% stake, Gazprom 11.3%, and the Serbian government 29.9% – operates Serbia’s only oil refinery in Pančevo, on the outskirts of Belgrade.

Gazprom Neft transferred about a 5.15% stake in the national refinery to Gazprom on February 26 in an attempt to avoid sanctions. The Pančevo facility has an annual production capacity of 4.8 million tons, covering most of the Balkan state’s needs, and sanctions could jeopardize its crude oil supplies through the Croatian Janaf refinery.