Security guarantees, which both Moscow and Kyiv cling to in order to stop the raging war between them since February 2022 and to engineer the ensuing geopolitical arrangements, represent a strategic dilemma troubling those concerned with the Ukrainian crisis. Ukrainian President Zelensky repeatedly emphasizes his country’s urgent need for security guarantees that preserve its sovereignty and unity and protect it from any future Russian attacks. He conditions any meeting with his Russian counterpart or signing a peace agreement on obtaining strict and sustainable security guarantees. Kyiv recalls its 1994 decision to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for international security guarantees under the Budapest Memorandum, which Russia violated by its 2014 and 2022 aggressions.

Zelensky’s counteroffer includes Ukraine’s NATO membership to benefit from Article 5’s collective defense, EU membership for economic and security support, compensation from frozen Russian assets, deployment of multinational peacekeeping forces, and substantial European funding for advanced military equipment. Europe and the US back these demands as part of reshaping Europe’s security architecture post-war, despite political and military challenges in deploying forces and managing relations with Russia. Moscow rejects NATO troop presence in Ukraine and demands guarantees that consider its strategic concerns, including the security of Russian speakers and the principle of indivisible collective security. The negotiations reflect a complex balance of deterrence, sovereignty, and geopolitical interests shaping the future of European and global security.