The American Associated Press agency outlined four possible scenarios for Gaza’s future after nearly two years of the Israeli war that devastated the sector. These scenarios include full Israeli occupation of Gaza, a ceasefire, or continued endless war. The agency indicated that US President Donald Trump will decide which scenario will be implemented.

This would mean sending ground forces to the few remaining areas in the sector that have not been completely destroyed, representing about 25% of its total area where most of the fighting population, about two million people, have displaced, including the coastal refugee camps. This could lead to countless Palestinian casualties and further displacement. It would also put the lives of the 20 remaining hostages held by Hamas at real risk. This might push Israel to take full control of the sector, making it legally obligated to provide security and ensure basic needs for the population.

AP noted that reoccupation could provoke international anger and further isolate Israel and the United States. There is opposition within Israel to this move, from those fearing for the hostages’ lives, and former security leaders have warned of a quagmire.

However, the idea of reoccupation is strongly supported among Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners who have long called for re-annexing Gaza, displacing most of its residents to other countries, and rebuilding Jewish settlements.

These demands were adopted by the Biden administration and the UN Security Council a year ago and were entrenched in the ceasefire agreement brokered by the Trump administration in January, which resulted in a six-week truce, the release of 25 hostages and the bodies of eight others, and a flow of humanitarian aid.

Israel fears that its withdrawal from Gaza would allow Hamas to rebuild its military machine and retain influence in the sector even without official power, paving the way for another attack like that of October 7, according to the agency.

Netanyahu may fear that his hardline allies will topple the government if a similar agreement is reached, potentially ending his 16 years in power and making him more vulnerable to corruption accusations and investigations over security and intelligence failures on October 7.

Even if that happens, he says Israel will continue plans to resettle most Gaza residents in other countries in what he claims would be a “voluntary migration,” though Palestinians and most of the international community see it as forced displacement violating international law.

Netanyahu also said Israel is ready for a temporary ceasefire during which Hamas would release the remaining living hostages and bodies in exchange for the release of Palestinians held by Israel, humanitarian aid flow, and partial Israeli withdrawal. Negotiations to end the war would follow, but Israel would still demand Hamas disarmament.

Hamas, for its part, has expressed readiness to hand over power to other Palestinian parties without giving up its weapons as long as Israel occupies the land where Palestinians want to establish their state.

AP indicates that further Israeli military escalation could force more concessions, but hostages remain Hamas’s only bargaining chip after losing most of its fighters and leaders in Gaza, losing control over many areas, and weakening its allies Hezbollah and Iran.

Israel is scheduled to hold elections in October 2026, possibly earlier, which could bring new leadership even if Netanyahu’s coalition remains.

AP concludes that the occurrence of any of these scenarios depends on US President Donald Trump, who provided massive military and diplomatic support to Israel and showed influence over Netanyahu when he mediated the ceasefire last January.

Trump says he supports ending the war in Gaza and the return of hostages but has not pressured Israel and fully accepted its conditions for a ceasefire. When recently asked about his support for reoccupation of Gaza by Israel, he replied that it is up to Israel.